When economist Dr. Peter Linneman joins the Walker Webcast, we know to expect more than just hot takes. He brings bold, data-backed predictions and the occasional mic-drop moment. As we approach the end of 2025, it’s time to check in: how are Peter’s forecasts holding up?
Spoiler alert: some are aging quite well. Others? Well, the jury’s still out.
Interest rates: first cut’s the deepest?
Prediction: The Fed would cut interest rates by roughly 100 basis points over 12–24 months.
Status: Partial/In progress
Peter called for a full percentage point of rate relief in 2025, and so far, the Fed has delivered the first 25 bps with a wink that more are coming. After nailing his 2024 rate predictions (and getting some well-earned webcast praise from Willy Walker), he might just be on a winning streak.
Cap rates: flirting with 5 percent
Prediction: Cap rates would fall toward ~5 percent in stronger CRE sectors over 12–24 months.
Status: Too early to tell
Cap rates haven’t exactly plunged, but they’ve dipped a toe in the water. Core multifamily rates are around 4.75 percent, with value-add properties still exceeding 5 percent. It’s a directional win for now, even if we’re not quite popping champagne.
Multifamily: the golden child of CRE (again)
Prediction: Multifamily would continue to be the "stay-rich" investment of choice.
Status: Spot on
Peter's love for multifamily wasn’t misplaced. With solid absorption, falling vacancies, and rent resilience, the sector continues to shine. It may not be flashy, but it’s reliable, and that matters in today’s market.
Tariffs: ticking time bomb or dud?
Prediction: Newly announced tariffs would cause a one-time inflation bump (~1.2 percent) and drag GDP by ~1.7 percent.
Status: Too early to tell
In April, Peter warned of tariffs that could sideswipe the economy. So far? The numbers don’t scream "crisis." That said, the full impact might just be fashionably late, or thankfully muted.
Oil prices: steady as she goes
Prediction: Oil would stabilize around $68–70/barrel.
Status: Plausible / On track
It’s not a headline-grabber, but Peter's oil call has been quietly accurate. Despite global drama, oil prices have mostly hovered around his forecasted sweet spot. We'll call it a quiet win.
S&P 500: 7–9 percent growth
Prediction: The S&P 500 would return 7–9 percent in 2025.
Status: Too early to tell
With markets bouncing between cautious optimism and global anxiety, it’s too soon to call this one. Peter might need a fourth-quarter rally to stick the landing.
GDP growth: bold and optimistic
Prediction: GDP would grow ~2.7 percent in 2025.
Status: Too early to tell
Some saw this as ambitious out of the gate. Institutional forecasts continue to trend lower, hovering around 1.8 percent. If Peter ends up right, he’ll deserve a victory lap.
"Get rich" gambles: office & data centers
Prediction: Opportunistic money might chase office and data centers (but beware the risks).
Status: Mixed results
Office remains iffy, with high vacancy and investor skittishness. Data centers are still hot, but Peter warned of overbuilding, and some analysts now echo those concerns. This one needs more time (and perhaps a crystal ball).
Some hits, some hangs, and more to come
Dr. Peter Linneman’s 2025 forecast wasn’t just a shot in the dark. Many of his predictions were bold but reasoned, and so far, he’s got some strong early wins to show for it. Others are still playing out in the economic shadows.
Check out The Most Insightful hour in CRE Part 23 for more predictions and exclusive insights.
News & Events
Find out what we’re doing by regularly visiting our news & events page.
Walker Webcast
Gain insight on leadership, business, the economy, commercial real estate, and more.