Five Takeaways from NMHC: The State of Student Housing

The 2025 NMHC Student Housing Conference underscored a sector finding its footing after two years of extraordinary rent growth and heightened investor enthusiasm. While the mood was more measured this year, the conversations I had at this event made one thing clear: student housing remains one of the most stable, data-driven, and opportunity-rich corners of the multifamily market. Here are my five key takeaways.

1. Deal Flow Reflects Price Discovery and Discipline

Listing activity remains high, but actual transaction volume continues to lag. Most activity is concentrated in the $25–$75 million range, with larger, $100 million-plus assets seeing minimal movement. Many owners are pursuing recapitalizations to maintain AUM rather than bringing assets to market. Across conversations, discipline was the dominant theme — investors are scrutinizing fundamentals, focusing on value-add plays, and zeroing in on Power 4 university markets¹ and assets with below-market rents.

2. Performance Normalizes After Record Years

After two years of double-digit rent growth, 2025 looks more sustainable. Rent gains in the 2–4% range are now typical, and while occupancy has plateaued, the sector remains far healthier than conventional multifamily, where overbuilding has pressured performance in markets like Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte. Oversupply and “shadow” student populations (those living off the data grid) are slowing leasing in some metros, but overall, stability is the story.

3. Underwriting Returns to Fundamentals

Gone are the aggressive rent growth assumptions that characterized recent underwriting. Investors are now prioritizing basis discipline and rigorous analysis over speculative growth models. While tariff discussions have been more background noise than market movers, they reinforce a broader investor mindset: focus on fundamentals, not headlines.

4. Macroeconomic and Demographic Context Keeps Growth Grounded

Interest rates are holding steady, giving investors more certainty. Meanwhile, upper-tier student housing has reached its affordability ceiling, even as flagship universities continue to attract record enrollment. Broader demographic trends — including a peaking pool of high school graduates — may signal moderation ahead, but the sector’s geographic rebalancing toward the Southeast and Power 4 universities continues to drive capital allocation.

5. Investment Outlook: Valuations and Opportunities

The outlook remains positive. “Shadow” supply that once sat vacant is now stabilized, and both debt and equity capital are available for well-positioned projects. Loan maturities over the next 24 months are likely to drive increased transaction volume, presenting compelling opportunities for disciplined, well-capitalized investors.

From a valuation standpoint, Walker & Dunlop’s Apprise team emphasized that student housing’s normalization is not a weakness — it’s a return to sustainable growth that underpins healthy valuations. Understanding these nuances requires specialized expertise: the dynamics of pre-leasing cycles, enrollment-driven demand, and cap rate consistency are unlike any other property type.

As one Apprise specialist noted, “You can’t just assign any appraiser to student housing. It demands a deep understanding of the fundamentals that make this asset class tick.”

Bottom line:

The student housing sector continues to attract sophisticated capital thanks to its predictable academic-year cycles, stable rent growth, and long-term demographic resilience. For investors and lenders, this is a moment to lean in — with discipline, data, and specialized insight.

Special thanks to Ben Sarna, Amy Blackman, and Christopher Epp for their contribution to this article.

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^{¹ Power 4 Universities refers to the four major athletic conferences in U.S. college sports: the Big Ten Conference, the Big 12 Conference, Southeastern Conference (SEC), and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). These conferences are identified as having the greatest influence, resources, and national prominence. Because Power 4 schools tend to have large enrollments, strong brand appeal and strong growth, they drive increased demand for student housing — especially purpose-built student housing (PBSH).}