Capital, cycles, and conviction: live from MBA CREF

At MBA CREF, we brought the Walker Webcast to the main stage.

Before a packed room and a global webcast audience, Willy Walker, chairman and chief executive officer of Walker & Dunlop, led a candid conversation with three of the most influential leaders in commercial real estate capital markets:

• Justin Wheeler, chief executive officer of Berkadia
• James Millon, president and co-head of capital markets U.S. & Canada at CBRE Capital Markets
• Michelle Herrick, head of commercial real estate at JPMorganChase

These firms collectively represent enormous portions of the debt, equity, advisory, and servicing ecosystems. The conversation was direct, occasionally contrarian, and refreshingly honest about where we are in the cycle.

Here are the themes that stood out to me.

There is no shortage of debt capital

Across the board, the message was clear: the debt markets are highly liquid.

Banks, CMBS lenders, debt funds, and alternative capital providers are active, in some cases aggressively so. As Justin described, there are lenders willing to step into situations where traditional institutions hesitate, offering higher leverage and different structures to keep deals moving.

But liquidity does not equal equilibrium.

Investor sentiment remains mismatched. Many buyers are ready to deploy capital. Far fewer sellers are willing to accept today’s pricing. That bid-ask tension has defined the last several years and continues into 2026.

James added an important dimension: a meaningful amount of capital remains trapped in closed-end funds that are past maturity. Limited partners want distributions. DPI has replaced NAV as the focus. That pressure will continue to drive activity, even if it is not always voluntary.

The market is functioning. It is not yet fully reset.

Multifamily remains resilient, but not immune

The multifamily discussion reflected both realism and long-term conviction.

Supply in parts of the Sun Belt has created short-term softness. Concessions are real, and rent growth has moderated. Yet structurally, the affordability crisis persists, and long-term demand drivers remain intact.

The continued role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was central to the discussion. Their liquidity and expanded caps help stabilize the sector.

Justin made an especially notable point: it is not simply about whether the agencies hit their volume caps. The operational capacity to process and execute that volume is equally critical. That nuance matters for CRE professionals planning refinancings in the year ahead.

Michelle reinforced another key principle from a lender’s perspective: consistency of capital. In a levered industry, sponsors need partners who will remain disciplined and present through every part of the cycle.

Data centers: real estate or something else?

Few topics generated as much layered thinking as data centers.

Are they real estate? Infrastructure? Corporate credit?

Michelle described them as “the ultimate tweener.” Tenant credit, construction execution, power access, and exit liquidity all matter, and they require coordination across multiple disciplines within a firm.

James emphasized the structural differences between investment-grade hyperscaler-backed facilities and more speculative builds. The underwriting is not interchangeable.

The broader takeaway was not exuberance, but selectivity. The AI buildout may be structurally different from prior tech cycles, but capital structure, tenancy quality, and long-term value assumptions still determine outcomes.

AI: productivity tool, not replacement thesis

The panel moved from AI as a tenant driver to AI as an internal operational shift.

Both Berkadia and CBRE are building proprietary tools powered by their transaction and servicing data. The objective is clear: actionable insights for clients, faster execution, and better risk identification.

But the conversation did not veer into alarmism.

Michelle made an important distinction. Digital tools can eliminate repetitive tasks, the “swivel seat” data entry and process-heavy work, while elevating human judgment. The art remains human. The science becomes automated.

There was also a thoughtful acknowledgment that entry-level training models may evolve. Apprenticeship and repetition have historically been how professionals learned the business. How that evolves alongside AI is still unfolding.

What was clear is that productivity will rise. But human advisory and relationship-driven decision-making remain central to commercial real estate.

Contrarian conviction: where would they invest?

Willy closed the session with a question that cut through the noise: If you could make just one investment in 2026, what would it be?

Justin chose the office changes in San Francisco as a high-conviction recovery play. James targeted trophy office in New York City, favoring senior debt at attractive yields and discounted bases. Michelle Herrick selected multifamily in supply-constrained markets such as New York City, citing durable demand and limited new supply, while noting selective upside in office turnarounds.

Those answers captured the spirit of the entire discussion.

Markets move. Sentiment shifts. Capital re-enters. Cycles reward conviction, but only when paired with disciplined underwriting.

What this Walker Webcast revealed

Live at MBA CREF, this conversation underscored several realities:

• Debt liquidity is strong, but pricing clarity is evolving.
• Multifamily’s long-term fundamentals remain compelling, even as near-term supply works through.
• Data centers demand sophisticated, cross-disciplinary underwriting.
• AI will reshape productivity, not eliminate advisory.
• Opportunity increasingly lies where others remain hesitant.

For owners, developers, and investors, the environment demands strategic alignment with capital partners who combine scale, data, and disciplined execution.

This discussion only scratched the surface.

To hear the full conversation, including the leadership insights, capital strategy nuances, and candid debate that can’t be captured fully on the page, watch the complete Walker Webcast from MBA CREF.