Affordability, demographics, and what comes next: Takeaways from the 2026 Zelman Housing Summit

Affordability remains a defining challenge for the U.S. housing market. But focusing on mortgage rates and home prices alone misses the structural changes taking shape beneath the surface.

At the 2026 Zelman Housing Summit, Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President, Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop Company, examined the demographic and economic forces influencing housing demand, supply, and investment. Her outlook points to a market where slower household growth, an aging population, generational wealth, and the widening cost gap between renting and owning will shape opportunities.

Here are five takeaways from her keynote.

1. Demographics are changing the housing demand equation

Ivy highlighted three factors to watch: fertility rates, estate sales and remodeling, and immigration.

U.S. fertility remains below replacement level, while smaller generations are following millennials. Zelman’s research anticipates slower population and household growth in the second half of this decade. Immigration, another important contributor to household formation, is also expected to fall significantly from elevated 2023 and 2024 levels.

The takeaway: Housing demand can't be underwritten solely on the assumption that historical household growth will continue. Demographic trends should impact long-term decisions about what to build, where to invest, and which housing segments to serve.

2. An aging population will affect supply as well as demand

As older homeowners leave their homes, more existing housing stock should gradually return to the market. Zelman’s research projects a steady increase in housing vacancies created by deaths through the end of the decade.

Aging housing stock returning through estate sales and moves can create opportunities for remodeling, renovation, and repositioning. For builders, that raises the possibility of addressing existing homes alongside traditional new construction.

Second homes are another part of the equation. Zelman’s research shows second-home ownership is most prevalent among households ages 55 to 74, making it a potential bright spot as the population ages.

The takeaway: Aging will influence where housing supply comes from and could create opportunities around renovation, repositioning, and second homes.

3. Renting has a meaningful affordability advantage

The cost of homeownership remains a major hurdle, particularly for younger households.

Zelman’s analysis puts the monthly housing cost for an entry-level buyer at roughly $870 more than the average multifamily rent. Renter household growth has outpaced owner household growth since late 2022.

More young adults are also living at home. Yet affordability doesn't explain the entire trend: Zelman found that 44 percent of 20- to 39-year-olds living at home in 2024 could afford the median rental in their local market. Lifestyle and demographic factors are also influencing when households form.

Rental housing has its own challenges, including higher vacancy rates. The picture varies considerably by market and housing type.

The takeaway: The rent-versus-buy equation still supports rental demand, but local supply and household formation trends are critical to understanding where that demand translates into opportunity.

4. Generational wealth is changing the affordability picture

Housing affordability looks different depending on who is buying and what resources they can access.

Baby Boomers hold approximately $90 trillion in net worth, according to Zelman’s analysis, including substantial equity and housing wealth. At the same time, the share of all-cash purchases has risen sharply among buyers ages 20 to 39 since 2010. The data doesn't show where that cash came from, but it underscores the limits of looking at income alone when assessing purchasing power.

The takeaway: Traditional affordability measures don't tell the whole story. Generational wealth and access to capital remain important to understanding housing demand, particularly in a market where financing costs are still elevated.

5. The for-sale market is still working through its affordability problem

Existing-home turnover is near historically weak levels as homeowners remain reluctant to surrender mortgages secured at lower rates. That lock-in effect should fade gradually, but it continues to restrict inventory and transactions.

Builders face the same affordability challenge from a different direction. New-home activity remains subdued, and incentives, particularly mortgage-rate buydowns, are still an important tool for reducing monthly payments and supporting sales. Labor availability continues to present challenges, while home improvement activity has yet to show meaningful improvement.

The takeaway: Lower rates could provide some relief, but they won't resolve every constraint. Affordability, labor, inventory, and consumer behavior will continue to shape the pace of recovery.

What comes next for the housing market?

The clearest message from Ivy’s outlook is that the housing market isn't simply waiting for mortgage rates to fall.

Demographics are shifting. More existing housing stock will return to the market as the population ages. Renting holds a significant cost advantage for many households. Wealth is unevenly distributed across generations. And builders are still adapting to buyers constrained by affordability.

Those forces won't play out evenly across the country or across housing types. For investors, developers, owners, and builders, the opportunity is in understanding how they intersect at the market and asset level.

The next housing cycle may not look like the last one. The assumptions used to navigate it shouldn't either.

Access insights from the Zelman Housing Summit

Get Ivy Zelman’s complete perspective on the forces shaping the housing market. Access her 2026 Zelman Housing Summit keynote, along with expert insights and discussions from across the event, on demand.