MIPIM 2026: European real estate shows a more selective recovery

Conversations at MIPIM 2026 pointed to a more constructive backdrop for European real estate. Investors were notably more focused on where they could selectively re-enter the market as pricing expectations and financing conditions continued to stabilize.

“Capital is returning to European real estate, but it is doing so selectively, gravitating toward operational sectors such as housing, logistics, and data centers, where long-term fundamentals remain strongest.” — Aaron Knight

That view was consistent across discussions with investors, lenders, and operators in Cannes. After the disruption of 2022 through 2024, stabilizing debt costs and price corrections in several markets have helped reopen deal pipelines. Even so, the tone is far from broad-based. Across EMEA commercial real estate, allocators remain focused on prime assets, proven operators, and sectors that can deliver durable cashflows. Many large pension funds and sovereign investors are still underweight real estate and waiting for clearer interest-rate signals before making major allocations.

Housing moves to the top of the investment agenda

Housing has clearly moved to the top of the investment agenda. Governments and cities are actively pitching pipelines to international investors, and residential sectors such as build-to-rent, student accommodation, and senior living are attracting significant interest. Planning and regulatory friction continues to constrain delivery in many markets, but the demand fundamentals are unmistakable.

A widening divide in the office market

Office tells a very different story. Demand has bifurcated between prime and secondary assets. Prime central office buildings continue to perform, while much of the secondary stock is now viewed as functionally obsolete and ripe for conversion. The most attractive opportunities are increasingly tied to active repositioning, including office-to-residential conversion, mixed-use redevelopment, and life sciences repositioning where local planning allows.

The refinancing wave ahead

Running alongside this sector rotation is a much larger structural issue. A significant volume of loans written during the ultra-low-rate period from roughly 2018 to 2022 is now maturing into a higher-rate, lower-valuation environment.

“A looming refinancing wall across ageing office and retail assets is likely to create a once-in-a-cycle opportunity for investors with patient capital and strong operational capabilities.” — Claudio Sgobba

Industry estimates discussed during MIPIM point to cumulative refinancing needs of €1 trillion to €2 trillion by 2030, concentrated in offices, retail, and older commercial stock. To date, loan extensions and sponsor equity injections have delayed broader distress. However, market participants increasingly expect refinancing stress to build between 2026 and 2028, with some of the clearest transactional opportunities emerging between 2027 and 2029.

For investors, this points to a market that will reward patience, flexibility, and execution. Platform plays in residential, data centers, and energy-resilient logistics continue to stand out, supported by supply constraints and long lease profiles. Distressed and rescue financings are also moving higher on the agenda, particularly as private credit providers continue stepping into the space left by constrained banks. Preferred equity, joint venture structures, and staged capital solutions are becoming more relevant as tools to bridge refinancing gaps and manage downside risk.

2026 looks more like a year of re-pricing and selective deployment than one of full recovery. The more fertile window for distressed acquisitions and platform roll-ups may come in 2027 through 2029. If housing shortages persist, replacement costs continue to rise, and capital inflows strengthen, the sector could move into a more sustained upswing from 2028 onward.

The clearest message from MIPIM this year was that the market is entering a different phase. In the next cycle, success is likely to depend less on financial engineering and more on hands-on asset management, balance-sheet flexibility, and technical execution. Across EMEA commercial real estate, selectivity is no longer simply a sign of caution. It is increasingly the strategy shaping where value will be created.

As investors navigate this shifting landscape across housing, logistics, data centers, offices, and complex refinancing situations, Walker & Dunlop’s EMEA team is well-positioned to advise across the full spectrum of capital solutions, asset strategies, and transaction opportunities.